Quest 3: The First Mass Consumer Augmented Reality Device
Why the Quest 3 may be more important than the Vision Pro
The Quest 3 is the first mass consumer augmented reality / mixed reality HMD that is affordable and has quality passthrough color AR at launch. This is the first time 3rd party software developers can make a business out of selling augmented reality apps on a mixed reality HMD.
Let’s go through each of these terms mean one by one.
Affordable: The Quest 3 is affordable ($499.99) relative to Quest Pro ($1499.99) or Vision Pro ($3,499). Anticipated sales of between several hundred thousand to low millions in the first year.
Quality Passthrough Color AR: Augmented reality using passthrough AR (same technology as Vision Pro) that is clear and not grainy (unlike the Quest Pro). The Quest 2 had black and white passthrough AR and the Quest Pro had a somewhat grainy color passthrough AR. This all changes now.
Mixed Reality - Features Augmented Reality (seeing things that exist and things that don’t exist in reality) and Virtual Reality (total vision encapsulation).
HMD - Head mounted display, a device worn on the head. This includes mixed reality headsets as well as AR glasses that lack virtual reality capabilities.
Affordable quality passthrough color AR signifies an inflection point in history for third party software developers.
This represents the first time in history where 3rd party developers can build self sustaining business models for mass consumer augmented reality apps on HMDs.
Smartphone based AR is a neutered version of AR because:
Hands are required to hold the phone and can’t be moved around as controls
The phone represents a small percentage of the total field of vision which reduces immersion.
Arm fatigue from holding arms up to view AR experience
The Quest 3 represents the first opportunity for augmented reality first studios to create augmented reality that resemble the end vision for augmented reality. We’ve only been experiencing watered down AR experiences up until now.
The Quest 3 changes all of this. At a $499 price point we now have an environment where multiple people in the same social circle potentially own a quality passthrough AR device.
This enables multiplayer AR experiences that have network effects. All previous AR glasses and mixed reality devices lacked the elements needed for a true AR experience that could build network effects.
While less powerful than the Vision Pro, the Quest 3 is potentially more important than the Vision Pro for third party developers in the next six months because of affordability which allows for self sustaining business models.
The Road Ahead for Augmented Reality
What has been accomplished for AR HMDs to replace smartphones:
Color passthrough AR
Affordability for early adopters
Software challenges mostly resolved with regards to occlusion and persistence
The characteristics required for the end vision remaining are:
Sensors for HMDs that work consistently in outdoor usage for affordable devices
Bright lighting disrupts performance at the moment
Implies mostly indoor apps
Aesthetically Acceptable Devices in most public areas - Devices need to look more like Ray Ban Stories with performance of Quest 3 or Vision Pro
This convergence is ~8 years away plus or minus a few years
Requires true mobile edge computing for device miniaturization
Apple will the social acceptability aspects as they iterate on the Vision products with their brand
If you are curious about augmented reality, the Quest 3 is the device to get for a view of the future. If you are interested in mass consumer AR, I’d love to have a conversation.